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DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 11/20 06:15
Lower Cash Will Pressure Market Thursday
Cattle futures took it on the chin Wednesday as cash traded lower in the
country. November feeder cattle closed higher, with Thursday the last trading
day for the contract. Hogs rebounded from Tuesday's losses with technical
trading the main focus.
Robin Schmahl
DTN Contributing Analyst
Cattle: Lower Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $269.77 -$0.62*
Hogs: Higher Futures: Higher Lean Equiv: $99.25 -$2.25**
*Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer
revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent
changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.)
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.
GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was surprising to see trade develop in cash cattle on Wednesday. Cash
cattle traded $6.00 lower in the North and $4.00 lower in the South. Generally,
when there is a Cattle on Feed report, cash trade does not develop until
Friday. Feedlots seem anxious to move cattle early, as cattle continue to get
heavier with little benefit due to declining prices. Heavy cattle will be the
norm as feed prices are low, but when feeding to heavier weights provides no
benefit, the cattle need to be sold. Boxed beef declined with choice down $0.72
and select down $1.40. The average estimates for Friday's Cattle on Feed report
are for on-feed numbers as of Nov. 1 at 97.7% of a year ago. Placements in
October at 91.6% with cattle marketed at 92.3%. It is uncertain whether USDA
will include comparisons from the missed October report.
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